Anticipating Chinese tourists arrivals in Australia: A time series analysis

• We reviewed the growth of China as an important inbound tourism market for Australia in the past three decades
• We analyzed monthly tourist arrivals from China to Australian from January 1991 to September 2015
• We identified the exponential trend and monthly seasonality of Chinese tourist arrivals to Australia
• We compared a set of SARIMA time series models in terms of prediction accuracy
• We forecast monthly Chinese tourist arrivals to Australia up to September 2017 and pointed out potential opportunities and challenges facing the Australian tourism industry

Given the growing importance of the Chinese tourist market to Australia, an understanding of Chinese tourists' arrival patterns is essential to accurate forecasting of future arrivals. Drawing on 25 years of records (1991–2015), this study developed a time-series model of monthly arrivals of Chinese tourists in Australia. The model reflects the exponentially increasing trend and strong seasonality of arrivals. Excellent results from validation of the model's forecasts endorsed this time-series model's potential in the policy prescription and management practice of Australian tourism industries.