Pairwise null model analyses of temporal patterns of bird assemblages contradict the assumptions of competition theory

Compensatory dynamics assume inverse patterns of population dynamics of species with similar ecological resource requirements (temporal segregation). The objective of this study was to test this hypothesis on temporal samples (10-57 years) of 19 breeding bird assemblages of various habitats. We used presence/absence null model (SIM2) in combination with the C-score and Sørensen indices. The C-score index estimates the average number of checkerboards for two species, while the Sørensen index measures the qualitative similarity of co-occurrence between two species in a time series. We used pairwise null model analysis to select significant species pairs based on three selection criteria: the standard confidence interval criterion, conservative empirical Bayes mean based criterion and confidence limit based criterion. Altogether, 21 402 species pairs were analysed. The SIM2 algorithm detected from 157 to 7 segregated pairs depending on the selection criterion. The number of significant negative pairs with possible biological significance (foraging guild membership, predator-prey interactions) was far lower and represented approximately 0.0-0.3% (4-65) of pairs in a matrix. Indeed, the number of detected negative associations depended on the selection criterion. Moreover, the number of segregated pairs was negatively related to the area of the census plots and fill of the species matrix. Our results underline the minor importance of interspecific competitive interactions in temporal patterns of bird assemblages. Instead, we suggest that stochastic factors, climate or heterospecific social information may lead to more or less synchronous dynamics of bird pairs.