کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1031685 943078 2014 12 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Bracing for demand shocks: An experimental investigation
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تعویض برای شوک تقاضا: یک تحقیق تجربی
کلمات کلیدی
شوک تقاضا، بازخورد پیش بینی شده، پرت کردن، تعصب قضاوت، آزمایش رفتاری، کنترل موجودی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی صنعتی و تولید
چکیده انگلیسی

We investigate inventory ordering decisions when decision makers anticipated a demand shock. Decision makers anticipating an event have been shown to brace for an uncertain negative outcome by overestimating the likelihood of that event. Decision makers faced with a spike in demand may incur increased holding costs because they may brace, exhibiting a judgment bias, and consequently a decision bias by over-ordering inventory. Three studies span conditions of uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of a demand shock: Employing three between-subjects experiments, Study 1 investigates behavior when decision makers were faced with uncertainty in timing and in magnitude of demand at the most elemental level, manipulating holding and stock out costs. The three experimental tasks feature uncertainty about the magnitude of demand (Experiment 1.1), uncertainty about the timing of demand (Experiment 1.2), and uncertainty about both the magnitude and timing of demand (Experiment 1.3). Study 2 uses a dynamic, multi-period replenishment task and a between-subjects manipulation regarding the uncertainty of timing and magnitude of a demand shock. Study 3 also employs a multi-period decision environment, but compares behavior under a demand shock condition with that in a condition featuring only random variability. The collective results from the three studies identify a bias toward over-ordering in response to a demand shock, relative to the optimal orders. The between-subjects manipulations in Study 2 points toward a possible remedy as we found that providing information concerning the timing and magnitude of a shock ameliorated the bias. The primary revelation was that decision makers had more difficulty dealing with uncertain timing than with uncertain magnitude of demand. One implication is that it is particularly critical for retailers to carefully plan and manage how they share information with upstream supply chain partners regarding when they plan to introduce store-level promotions.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Operations Management - Volume 32, Issue 4, May 2014, Pages 205–216
نویسندگان
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