A system dynamics model for platinum group metal supply, market price, depletion of extractable amounts, ore grade, recycling and stocks-in-use

• The world supply and production of PGMs was calculated using system dynamics PGM-model.
• URR is about 216,000 ton of PGMs down to a mining depth of 5 km.
• The model combines mining, ore grade, price mechanisms, supply, demand, stock-in-use, losses and recycling.
• The simulated values for mining rate, ore grade and platinum price compared favorably with historical data.
• Peak plateau production is predicted for 2020–2050 and a slow decline after that.

The long term development of world primary extraction, market supply, recycling and extractable amounts of the platinum group metals platinum, palladium and rhodium was assessed. The degree of sustainability was estimated using system dynamics modelling. Compiling estimates from different sources, and considering recent technological advances in deep mining suggests that the Ultimately Recoverable Resource (URR) is about 216,000 ton of platinum group metals down to a mining depth of maximum 5 km, significantly more than earlier published estimates. The world supply and production of platinum group metals was calculated using system dynamics methodology to develop the PGM-model for this study. The model combines mining, ore grade changes, trade markets, price mechanisms, supply, demand, estimates of stock-in-use, waste, dissipative losses and recycling into a whole world system. The model was run for the period of 1900–2400. The model outputs were successfully tested on historic data for mining rate, ore grades and platinum market price during 1900–2014. The model indicates that extraction will reach maximum in the period 2020–2050 and that market supply will peak in 2070–2080. The delay is caused by the effect of recycling. The outputs from the model emphasize the importance of recycling, metal conservation and elimination of dissipative losses in order to secure long term sustainable platinum group metals supply.