Moderately urbanized areas as a conservation opportunity for an endangered songbird

Urban sprawl has increased in Western Europe principally due to conversion of farmland areas, which has constrained remaining farmland to more intensive use. Urban densification aims to counteract urban sprawl; however, it threatens urban green spaces that act as sustainable alternative habitats for wildlife. In this study, we used the Common Redstart (Phoenicurus phoenicurus) as a model species to develop sustainable planning recommendations for urban green spaces. Using species distribution models (SDMs) in combinations with high-resolution predicting variables (2 × 2 m grid cell), we defined the suitable habitat of a Common Redstart territory in a moderately urbanized environment. We then predicted how the distribution would be affected under realistic scenarios of land-use modification (termed conservation scenario and threat scenario) in an effort to provide recommendations for urban green space planning. Tree canopy cover was the principal land-cover type in the SDMs that explained the current species distribution followed by impervious surface and short-cut lawn. In the conservation scenario where tree canopy coverage was increased we predicted an increase in optimum habitat for the Common Redstart from 7% to 27% of the study area. In contrast, under a threat scenario based on urban densification, we predicted a decrease in the optimum habitat to only 4% of the study area. The SDMs results were used to highlight the importance of the suitable areas that have a predicted potential to conserve and promote an interconnected urban green space networks to maintain urban biodiversity.