کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
11025048 | 1701034 | 2019 | 10 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Nowcasting of the probability of accumulated precipitation based on the radar echo extrapolation
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
پیش بینی احتمال بارش انباشته بر اساس استخراج اکو رادار
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موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
علوم زمین و سیارات
علم هواشناسی
چکیده انگلیسی
ETM was tested using radar reflectivity data from July 2012 in a domain of 489â¯km by 291â¯km covering the Czech Republic (Central Europe). While forecasting, we considered a lead time of up to 180â¯min having a time step of 30â¯min and four precipitation thresholds (0.1, 1.0, 5.0, and 10.0â¯mm). ETM provided us forecasts of the probability of exceeding an hourly precipitation threshold from 0 to 60â¯min, 30 to 90â¯min, â¦, and 120 to 180â¯min. The performance of ETM was assessed using a skill score derived from the mean-square-error, and was compared with the performance of forecasts based on a logistic regression that was used as reference forecast. We demonstrated that the prediction of ETM is better than that of the reference forecast. The main advantage of ETM is that the ETM reflects the uncertainty of forecast better as compared to the overconfident reference forecasts, which is particularly true for the higher precipitation thresholds. Thus, despite low predicted probabilities, the forecasts given by ETM seem more realistic.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Atmospheric Research - Volume 216, 1 February 2019, Pages 1-10
Journal: Atmospheric Research - Volume 216, 1 February 2019, Pages 1-10
نویسندگان
LukáÅ¡ Pop, ZbynÄk Sokol, Jana MináÅová,