State-level personality and presidential vote share in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections

• We test for the influence of state personality on presidential vote share in 2008 and 2012.
• We test for the mediating effect of state-level political factors in linking personality with vote share.
• We find that state personality influences state citizen liberalism, policy mood, partisan identification, and white racial prejudice.
• These factors then influence presidential vote share in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.

Recent research has examined how variation across the states in the “Big Five” personality trait taxonomy helps explain the proportion of votes the presidential candidates receive in the states, concluding that state personality traits had a direct effect on presidential vote share in the 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential elections. The current study has three goals: First, to examine the influence of personality traits on Barack Obama's vote share in the 2008 and 2012 elections; second to test whether the influence of personality traits on vote share holds under stricter controls for political factors and white racial prejudice; and, third, to test for potential meditating effects of state-level political characteristics and white racial prejudice in linking state-level personality traits with Obama's vote share. The findings indicate that two state personality traits – conscientiousness and openness – had indirect effects on Obama's 2008 and 2012 vote share through their influence on state ideology, partisanship, and white racial prejudice.