Diffusion of CCS and energy efficient technologies in power and iron & steel sectors

In a long-term perspective, deep emissions cuts are essential for a stabilization of atmospheric GHGs. We analyze a role of CCS in a global energy systems model, which we call DNE21+. The DNE21+ is a technology-rich optimization model that minimizes energy systems costs under some constraints, e.g., global emissions path, electricity demand, and steel production. The model also has a high regional resolution and the trajectory of technological changes shall be a practical one because the vintages and lifetimes of the facilities are taken into account inside the model.Three cases are studied; i) reference, ii) 550 ppmv CO2-only stabilization and iii) 50% reductions by 2050 (50/50) cases. The results indicate that a moderate diffusion of CCS in power sector and more efficient blast furnace - basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) technologies are cost-effective options in the 550 ppmv case. In contrast the results in the 50/50 case are radical solutions. Almost fossil-fuel and bio-fuel power plants have CCS facilities in 2050. BF-BOFs are replaced with most efficient BF-BOFs with CCS and H2-based DRI-EAFs. Discussion for global emission target/vision should explicitly consider these aspects of radical technology diffusion.