Earned value project management: Improving the predictive power of planned value

• Conventionally, time-phased representation of planned value (PV) is performance baseline.
• Innovatively, PV is viewed as the predictor of earned value (EV) and actual cost (AC).
• We improve PV's predictive power for EV and AC forecasts before executing a project.
• Improvement on PV's predictive power helps advance favorable performance outcomes.

Earned value project management (EVPM) is an effective tool for managing project performance. However, most studies on extensions and applications of EVPM concentrate on improving final cost and duration estimates rather than improving upon the use of planned value (PV) to predict earned value (EV) and actual cost value (AC). This study proposes a straightforward modeling method for improving the predictive power of PV before executing a project. By using this modeling method, this study develops EV and AC forecasting models for four case projects. Out-of-sample forecasting validation using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) demonstrates that the proposed method improves forecasting accuracy by an average of 23.66% and 17.39%, respectively, for EV and AC. This improvement on PV's predictive power prior to project execution provides management with more reliable predictive information about EV and AC performance, allowing for effective proactive action to ensure favorable performance outcomes.