کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
3361577 1592043 2016 9 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Mechanisms of replacement of circulating viruses by seasonal and pandemic influenza A viruses
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری ایمنی شناسی و میکروب شناسی میکروبیولوژی و بیوتکنولوژی کاربردی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Mechanisms of replacement of circulating viruses by seasonal and pandemic influenza A viruses
چکیده انگلیسی


• Although new antigenic variants of the influenza A virus replace formerly circulating viruses, the replacement mechanisms remain poorly understood.
• Modelling analyses found that tropical regions play a significant role in the replacement.
• Factors and conditions of virus and host populations affecting the replacement were identified.
• These findings could lead to a better understanding of virus transmission dynamics and may possibly be helpful for establishing an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of seasonal and pandemic influenza.

SummaryBackgroundSeasonal influenza causes annual epidemics by the accumulation of antigenic changes. Pandemic influenza occurs through a major antigenic change of the influenza A virus, which can originate from other hosts. Although new antigenic variants of the influenza A virus replace formerly circulating seasonal and pandemic viruses, replacement mechanisms remain poorly understood.MethodsA stochastic individual-based SEIR (susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered) model with two viral strains (formerly circulating old strain and newly emerged strain) was developed for simulations to elucidate the replacement mechanisms.ResultsFactors and conditions of virus and host populations affecting the replacement were identified. Replacement is more likely to occur in tropical regions than temperate regions. The magnitude of the ongoing epidemic by the old strain, herd immunity against the old strain, and timing of appearance of the new strain are not that important for replacement. It is probable that the frequency of replacement by a pandemic virus is higher than a seasonal virus because of the high initial susceptibility and high basic reproductive number of the pandemic virus.ConclusionsThe findings of this study on replacement mechanisms could lead to a better understanding of virus transmission dynamics and may possibly be helpful in establishing an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of seasonal and pandemic influenza.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Infectious Diseases - Volume 51, October 2016, Pages 6–14
نویسندگان
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