Spatial prediction of wheat septoria leaf blotch (Septoria tritici) disease severity in Central Ethiopia

• Septoria Leaf Blotch (SLB) disease is a threat to wheat production in Ethiopia.
• The Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) modeling approach was effective for predicting spatial patterns of SLB disease.
• Remote sensing and bioclimatic variables were important predictors of SLB disease.
• Soil and topographic variables did not influence the BRT model in this study.

A number of studies have reported the presence of wheat septoria leaf blotch (Septoria tritici; SLB) disease in Ethiopia. However, the environmental factors associated with SLB disease, and areas under risk of SLB disease, have not been studied. Here, we tested the hypothesis that environmental variables can adequately explain observed SLB disease severity levels in West Shewa, Central Ethiopia. Specifically, we identified 50 environmental variables and assessed their relationships with SLB disease severity. Geographically referenced disease severity data were obtained from the field, and linear regression and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) modeling approaches were used for developing spatial models. Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived vegetation indices and land surface temperature (LST) variables highly influenced SLB model predictions. Soil and topographic variables did not sufficiently explain observed SLB disease severity variation in this study. Our results show that wheat growing areas in Central Ethiopia, including highly productive districts, are at risk of SLB disease. The study demonstrates the integration of field data with modeling approaches such as BRT for predicting the spatial patterns of severity of a pathogenic wheat disease in Central Ethiopia. Our results can aid Ethiopia's wheat disease monitoring efforts, while our methods can be replicated for testing related hypotheses elsewhere.