A 50 year study shows grass cover has increased in shrublands of semi-arid South Africa

In many parts of the world the boundaries between grassland and shrubland biomes have changed substantially over the course of the last century. Many are projected to shift further from being grass-dominated to shrub-dominated by 2050 under global climate change and land use change projections. This paper used long-term surveys and repeat photography to assess vegetation change at the shrubland-grassland ecotone in semi-arid, South Africa. Changes in several climate variables as well as in the cover of grasses and dwarf shrubs over three time periods (1962, 1989 and 2009) were investigated at eight localities within a broad 500 km ecotone between the Grassland and Nama-karoo biomes. Results showed that for most sites grass cover has increased and that dwarf shrub cover has decreased over time. This contradicts earlier views which warned against the expansion of dwarf shrublands in response to over-grazing as well as more recent views which suggest that more mesic biomes in the Karoo Midlands will contract in response to climate-induced aridification. The decline in stocking densities and more conservation-friendly land management practices together with an increase in large wet events in the Nama-karoo biome may have contributed to the increase in grass cover.