Lung cancer risk assessment at receptor site of a waste-to-energy plant

• Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk (ELCR) was evaluated for an incinerator plant.
• Both ultrafine and coarse particles were considered in the risk assessment model.
• Wind speed and chimney height effect on ELCR at receptor sites were analysed.
• Risk maps around the incinerator were calculated on the basis of wind characteristics.
• Very low values of ELCR were found, lower than EPA and WHO safety limits.

The toxicity of particulate matter emitted from waste-to-energy plants, is associated to the compounds attached to the particles, several of which have been classified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in the Group 1 carcinogens. In this paper a modified risk-assessment model, deriving from an existing one, was applied to estimate the lung cancer risk related to both ultrafine and coarse particles emitted from an incinerator whose people living nearby are exposed to. To this end, the measured values of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs), heavy metals (As, Cd, Ni) and PCDD/Fs (Polychlorinated dibenzodioxins/furans) emitted from an incinerator placed in Italy were used to calculate the Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk (ELCR) at the stack of the plant. The estimated ELCR was then used as input data in a numerical CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) model that solves the mass, momentum, turbulence and species transport equations to study the influence of wind speed and chimney height on the ELCR at receptor sites. Furthermore, combining meteorological data (wind speed and direction), and hypothesizing different exposure scenarios on the basis of time-activity patterns of people living nearby the plant, specific risk maps were obtained by evaluating ELCR around the incinerator. Results show that with the increasing of wind speed, the ELCR value downwind at the plant decreases and its point of maximum risk becomes closer to the stack. On the other hand, increasing the stack height decreases the ELCR, moving away from the stack the point of maximum risk. Finally, the risk maps for people living or working nearby the plant have highlighted that the excess risk of lung cancer due to the presence of the incinerator is below the WHO target (1 × 10−5).