کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4576736 1629981 2012 13 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A scenario-incorporating analysis of the propagation of uncertainty to flash flood simulations
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
A scenario-incorporating analysis of the propagation of uncertainty to flash flood simulations
چکیده انگلیسی

SummaryThis study proposes a methodology to analyze the propagation of uncertainty arising from radar rainfall and model parameter estimation to the flow simulations obtained from flash flood modeling. For this purpose an ensemble approach that describes the error from radar rainfall estimation and a novel approach that considers the seasonality and variability of catchment conditions in the estimation of model parameters have been implemented. The methodology analyzes the separate effect of each source of uncertainty and their interaction on runoff simulations. The methodology has been applied in the Besòs river basin, Catalonia (Spain) with a drainage area of 1020 km2. The results show that the effect of parameter estimation uncertainty produces a smaller spread in the model realizations than the effect caused by the uncertainty in rainfall estimation.


► We propose a methodology to study the propagation of uncertainty in hydrological modeling.
► We examine the uncertainty from rainfall and model parameter estimation.
► We propose an approach that consider the variability of antecedent moisture conditions in the catchment.
► Interaction of sources of uncertainty produces an amplification effect in the results.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Hydrology - Volumes 460–461, 16 August 2012, Pages 90–102
نویسندگان
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