Multisite flooding hazard assessment in the Upper Mississippi River

SummaryThis contribution presents an assessment of the joint probability distribution able to describe multi-site multi-basin flood scenarios in a high dimensionality framework. This goal will be pursued through two different approaches: the multivariate skew-t distribution and the Student copula with arbitrary margins. While copulas have been widely used in the modeling of hydrological processes, the use of the skew-t distribution in hydrology has been only recently proposed with reference to a trivariate application (Ghizzoni et al., 2010, Adv. Water Resour., 33, 1243–1255). Both methods are here applied and discussed in a context of considerably higher dimensionality: the Upper Mississippi River floods. In fact, to enhance the characteristics of the correlation structure, eighteen nested and non-nested gauging stations were selected, with significantly different contributing areas. Such conditions represent a challenge for both the skew-t and the copula approach. In perspective, the ability of such approaches in explaining the multivariate aspects of the relevant processes is needed to specify flood hazard scenarios in terms of their intensity, extension and frequency. When this is associated to the knowledge of location, value and vulnerability of exposed elements, comprehensive flood risk scenarios can be produced, and risk cumuli quantified, for given portfolios, composed of wherever located risks.

► Highly dimensional flood scenarios are generated for the Upper Mississippi River.
► Two approaches: multivariate skew-t distribution and t-copula function.
► They are very different in nature with advantages and drawbacks.
► Both provide consistent descriptions of the flooding process.