کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی نسخه تمام متن
4981083 1367850 2018 10 صفحه PDF ندارد دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله
Heinrich's pyramid and occupational safety: A statistical validation methodology
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
هرم Heinrich و ایمنی شغلی: یک روش اعتبارسنجی آماری
کلمات کلیدی
مدل های بیزی؛ هرم Heinrichs. امنیت شغلی؛ ارزیابی ایمنی؛ تصادفات منجر به مرگ؛
Bayesian models; Heinrich’s pyramid; Occupational safety; Safety assessment; Fatal accidents;
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی شیمی بهداشت و امنیت شیمی
چکیده انگلیسی

•The paper test the statistical validity of the Heinrich’s pyramid.•A Bayesian two-part specification, Poisson- gamma and Multinomial–Dirichlet, is proposed.•A database of more than 50,000 economic units over 28 months in Chile is analyzed.•Heinrich’s pyramid is confirmed to be statistically invalid for different economic activity sectors and geographic regions, but the discrepancy is so small that, for practical purposes, the pyramid is valid.

Heinrich’s pyramid, which postulates that the severity distribution of occupational accidents is relatively constant, is one of the main tools for management of occupational safety. However, existing evidence suggests that decreases in minor accidents have not always been followed by similar decreases in serious and fatal accidents. To test the statistical validity of the pyramid, we propose a Bayesian two-part model: the first part estimates accident rates using a Poisson-gamma distribution, and the second part estimates the proportion of minor, serious and fatal accidents using a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution. If this proportion does not change when the accident rate is reduced, then the statistical validity of the pyramid is confirmed, but if it changes, then its validity is refuted. Our data cover more than 50,000 companies observed over 28 months in Chile. Heinrich’s pyramid is confirmed to be statistically invalid for different economic activity sectors and geographic regions, but the discrepancy is so small that, for practical purposes, the pyramid is valid. We thus conclude that the occurrence of minor accidents is a useful signal for assessing and forecasting the overall safety performance of a firm.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Safety Science - Volume 101, January 2018, Pages 180-189
نویسندگان
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