The Role of Strategic Behaviour in Ecosystem Service Modelling: Integrating Bayesian Networks With Game Theory

- Bayesian networks (BN) and game theory (GT) are regarded as orthogonal bodies of work.
- No attempt has been made to integrate these approaches in ecosystem services (ES) studies.
- Many ES studies using BNs implicitly try to approach strategic behaviour.
- GT can be easily integrated in a BN framework.
- Integration of GT and BNs helps to understand stakeholders' behaviour.

Humans fulfil an active role, through management and economic activities, in the production of ecosystem services and related benefits. Different human groups may pursue different objectives, and their actions may affect each other's well-being. Bayesian networks have gained importance in ecosystem service modelling and we show how, in recent literature, this approach has attempted to address strategic behaviour issues. Using simple simulations, we illustrate that the strategic behaviour of stakeholders could be better modelled with an integration of game theory concepts in Bayesian networks. This approach may help to understand the rationale behind stakeholders' behaviour and foresee their actions. Furthermore, the comparison of environmental results with cooperative and strategic behaviours raises questions about the role of humans in the production of ecosystem services, and on the correct way to value their benefits.