Market driven management of climate change impacts in the Spanish mussel sector

- French, Italian and Spanish mussel markets cannot be regarded as an integrated market.
- Spanish and French mussels are imperfect substitutes.
- Reductions in production will be countervailed by increasing prices.
- Market intelligence is a key to guide responses to climate change.
- Strategies minimizing risks linked to climatic uncertainty should be designed.

Mussel farming is the largest aquaculture activity in Spain both in volume and value, being a key pillar for the development of the coastal areas in Galicia (NW Spain), where this production is concentrated. The available scientific knowledge suggests that in the long term the primary productivity of the Galician estuaries will be reduced due to climate change. Consequently, adaptive management will be required to face this challenge. The impact of the likely production decrease will depend, among other factors, on the availability of substitutes, being their identification the main object of this research. So, it was analysed whether this markets are integrated or not through cointegration tests, finding that only the French and the Spanish markets are partially integrated. This implies that since very little substitutes are available for the Galician fresh mussels, decreases in production will not necessarily affect producer's income, as prices increases will compensate the (eventual) reduction in volume. In terms of policy, this study suggests that market intelligence may contribute to an adaptive, pragmatic and flexible framework to face climate change impacts, avoiding too anticipated or blind responses that may result in economic, environmental and social costs.