Reconciling solar forecasts: Temporal hierarchy

The empirical part of the paper consists an NWP-based day-ahead forecast reconciliation example. Hourly data from 318 sites in California, over a period of 1 year, is used. Over 50 million forecasts are produced in this paper, in an operational forecasting context. Temporal reconciliation is shown to significantly outperform NWP forecasts produced by 3TIER, with a forecast skill (computed based on 3TIER forecasts) up to 0.3. Since reconciliation does not require any additional information, such improvement is thus encouraging.