ReviewClimate change, food security and mycotoxins: Do we know enough?

- Interactions between water availability & temperature affect mycotoxigenic fungi.
- The pathogen/host/environment interaction is modified by climate change factors.
- Interacting climate change factors impacts on growth/mycotoxin production.
- More accurate primary data can help predict climate change impacts on mycotoxins.
- Climate change factors may profoundly impact food security of staple commodities.

Climate change (CC) scenarios are predicted to have significant effects on the security of staple commodities. A key component of this impact is the infection of such crops by mycotoxigenic moulds and contamination with mycotoxins. The impacts of CC on mycotoxigenic fungi requires examination of the impacts of the three-way interactions between elevated CO2 (350-400 vs 650-1200 ppm), temperature increases (+2-5 °C) and drought stress on growth/mycotoxin production by key spoilage fungi in cereals and nuts. This review examines the available evidence on the impacts of interacting CC factors on growth and mycotoxin production by key mycotoxigenic fungi including Alternaria, Aspergillus, Fusarium and Penicillium species. Aspergillus flavus responsible for producing aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) is a class 1A carcinogen and its growth appears to be unaffected by CC factors. However, there is a significant stimulation of AFB1 production both in vitro and in vivo in maize. In contrast, studies on Aspergillus section Circumdati and Nigri species responsible for ochratoxin A contamination of a range of commodities and F. verticillioides and fumonisins suggest that some species are more resilient than others, especially in terms of mycotoxin production. Acclimatisation of mycotoxigenic fungal pathogens to CC factors may result in increased disease and perhaps mycotoxin contamination of staple cereals. Predictive modelling approaches to help identify regions where maximum impact may occur in terms of infection by mycotoxigenic fungi and toxin contamination of staple crops is hindered by the lack of reliable inputs on effects of the interacting CC factors. The present available knowledge is discussed in the context of the resilience of staple food chains and the impact that interacting CC factors may have on the availability of food in the future.