Assessment of the gap and (non-)Internet users evolution based on population biology dynamics

• Modeling (non-)Internet users evolution based on population biology.
• The carrying capacity, max growth rate time and residuals harmonics are evaluated.
• Users are still increasing while there is a time lag of countries׳ max growth rate.
• Efficient regulation, investments and socioeconomic facts explain the derived results.
• Careful copper/fiber access prices policy can lead to a further increase of users.

The evolution of Internet and non-Internet users as well as the dynamics of their divide is studied using population biology concepts. Users׳ evolution and future trends are estimated by applying Lotka–Volterra model. The parameters of the proposed model are determined by both an analytical and a simulation method. The presented model is applied to two cases; Greece and Lithuania. The accuracy of the obtained results is confirmed through actual data. Internet users are constantly increasing while they outperform non-users in the last years. It is confirmed that the maximum growth rate of Internet users in both countries coincides to periods with effective regulation, broadband promotion, provision of bundle products and alternative operators׳ investments. Model׳s estimation and forecasting ability can be used as a valuable tool for decision and policy makers. Several policy guidelines are provided helping to achieve higher penetration levels.