Original ArticlesCan China achieve its CO2 emissions peak by 2030?

- An improved IPAT model is proposed to calculate the carbon intensity.
- The carbon intensity by 2030 in China is forecasted by grey model.
- China has made great efforts to reduce CO2 emissions.
- China needs to balance the economic development and CO2 emissions in future.

With the rapid development of the economy, China is suffering serious environmental problems due to the increase of CO2 emissions. As a responsible nation, China has employed a series of actions in response to the global plans on reducing emissions. This paper answers the question of whether China can achieve the CO2 emissions peak commitment by 2030. We develop an improved IPAT model to calculate the carbon intensity between 2005 and 2015. The national results show that the carbon intensity declines from 0.306 in 2005 to 0.129 in 2015 with an average annual decline rate of 8.28%, whereas the GDP enjoys a sustainable growth trend with an average annual growth rate of 13.79%. However, only when the decline rate of the carbon intensity is higher than the growth rate of the GDP, can China really achieve the CO2 emissions peak. The regional and provincial results demonstrate that Easter region with highest GDP has produced the most CO2 emissions in the past decade. Some underdeveloped western provinces experience higher carbon intensity, while other economically developed eastern provinces enjoy lower carbon intensity from 2005 to 2015. To further evaluate the probability of China reaching the peak, the grey model (GM (1, 1)) is employed to forecast future carbon intensity. It is proved that China will achieve the CO2 emissions peak if the GDP is lower than 151,426.15 billion Yuan by 2030. More efforts should be exerted in reducing CO2 emissions while coordinating the economic growth among different regions and provinces for China. Finally, we propose some suggestions to promote the realization of CO2 emissions peak as soon as possible.