Are agricultural quad bike loss-of-control events driven by unrealistic optimism?

• Few studies have explored behavioural risk factors for agricultural quad bike use.
• 51% of farmers had unrealistic optimism regarding the risk of quad bike incident.
• Farmers with unrealistic optimism report fewer quad bike incidents.
• Realistic training to highlight rider capabilities and vulnerabilities is proposed.

Quad bikes are used extensively in agriculture. Use of these vehicles, however, carries some risk. The promotion of safety behaviours has not reduced this risk. This study tested the hypotheses that farmers with greater unrealistic optimism (UO), fatalistic beliefs or a propensity for risk-taking are more susceptible to quad bike loss-of-control events (LCEs). A cross-sectional study recruited 216 farmers from the Otago and Southland regions of New Zealand. A face-to-face structured interview was carried out to record psychological constructs and history of LCEs. Data were analysed using regression methods. Fifty-two farmers (24%) reported no LCEs, the remaining 164 farmers (76%) reported between 1 and 50 events. Generally, farmers did not have risk-taking personalities or fatalistic beliefs but did appear to have an “it won’t happen to me” attitude towards their risk of quad bike incidents. Number of LCEs was significantly associated with lower UO (IRR 0.84, 95%CI: 0.75, 0.94), higher impulsive sensation seeking (IRR 1.08, 95%CI: 1.01, 1.16), younger age (IRR 0.98, 95%CI: 0.97, 0.99) and male sex (IRR 4.00, 95%CI: 2.15, 7.44). The effect of UO was being driven by a positive relationship between number of LCEs and greater belief in personal risk of having LCEs. Contrary to hypotheses, farmers with stronger beliefs that “it won’t happen to me” were less likely to have had LCEs. Further exploration into the factors that contribute to farmers’ perception of LCE risk and its impact on quad bike safety behaviour is warranted. This may allow for more targeted interventions.