Quantitative fibrosis estimation by image analysis predicts development of decompensation, composite events and defines event-free survival in chronic hepatitis B patients

SummaryThe extent of fibrosis is a major determinant of the clinical outcome in patients with chronic liver diseases. We undertook this study to explore the degree of fibrosis in baseline liver biopsies to predict clinical outcomes in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Fibrosis quantification was done by image analysis on Masson's trichrome-stained sections and correlated with clinical and biochemical parameters, liver stiffness and hepatic vein pressure gradient (n = 96). Follow-up information collected related to clinical outcome. A total of 964 cases was analyzed. Median quantitative fibrosis (QF) was 3.7% (interquartile range, 1.6%-9.7%) with substantial variation in various stages. Median QF was F0, 1% (0.7%-1.65%); F1, 3.03% (2.07%-4.0%); F2, 7.1% (5.6%-8.7%); F3, 12.7% (10.15%-16.7%); F4, 26.9% (20.3%-36.4%). QF positively correlated with METAVIR staging, liver stiffness measurement, and hepatic vein pressure gradient. Eighty-nine cases developed liver-related events: decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation and death. Cox regression analysis after adjusting for METAVIR staging-QF, albumin, and AST for composite events; QF and albumin for decompensation; and only QF for hepatocellular carcinoma-were found to be significant predictors of clinical outcomes. QF categorized into five stages: QF1, 0%-5%; QF2, 5.1%-10%; QF3, 10.1%-15%; QF4, 15.1%-20%; QF5, > 20.1%. In patients with advanced stages of QF, probability of event-free survival found to be low. Quantitative fibrosis in baseline liver biopsy predicts progression of the disease and disease outcome in CHB patients. QF defines the probability of event-free survival in CHB cases.