Observed and projected impacts of climate on radial growth of three endangered conifers in northern Mexico indicate high vulnerability of drought-sensitive species from mesic habitats

- Conifers from mesic areas could decline due to warming-induced drought stress.
- We assess the vulnerability of three Mexican conifers to forecasted warming.
- Cupressus lusitanica growth increased as temperature did.
- Warmer-drier conditions reduce growth in Abies durangensis and Picea chihuahuana.
- Forecasted 21st-century warming would threaten endangered Mexican conifers.

A decline in productivity and radial growth in conifer forests from mesic areas has been associated with increased drought stress induced by climate warming. Nevertheless, studies showing how vulnerable tree species will be in response to forecasted warming conditions are scarce in such mesic habitats. Here we address this issue by analyzing how growth responds to drought and to observed and projected climate conditions in a conifer forest from northern Mexico, which is a hotspot of conifer diversity. We quantify the trends in radial growth (quantified as basal area increment, BAI) of three species (Abies durangensis, Picea chihuahuana, Cupressus lusitanica) using dendrochronology and a process-based model of tree growth. Growth decreased in A. durangensis and P. chihuahuana from the late 1980s onwards in response to warmer and drier conditions, whereas C. lusitanica growth showed very low sensitivity to precipitation and increased as temperature did. Winter-spring dry conditions adversely affected the growth of A. durangensis and P. chihuahuana. Our modeling approach anticipates growth reductions and an increase in the vulnerability of A. durangensis and the endangered P. chihuahuana against the warmer and more arid conditions predicted after the 2050s. Future warmer and drier climatic conditions could reduce the productivity and lead to growth decline of these mesic conifer forests triggering dieback episodes in highly drought-sensitive species as A. durangensis and P. chihuahuana.