Probabilistic private cost-benefit analysis for green roof installation: A Monte Carlo simulation approach

- Noise reduction is an influential factor in cost-benefit analysis of green roof installation.
- Monte Carlo simulation is used to consider green roofs' uncertainties.
- Probability of loss in installing intensive green roof is more than extensive one.
- Most probable payback period of extensive green roof is more than three years.
- NPV of green roof installation in developing and developed countries is very different.

Green roofs are known as one of the environmentally-friendly applications and also as a sustainable approach in developing countries. Although many researchers have proven the environmental benefits of installing green roofs all around the world, they have not been used widely in many countries due to the lack of knowledge about cost-benefit issues. This paper places an emphasis on all the private factors affecting cost-benefit analysis. Installation, operation and maintenance costs are compared with the benefits such as energy saving, the increase in property value, and the acoustic effect in order to determine two indicators namely “net present value” and “pay-back period,” using the Monte Carlo simulation. Two scenarios are considered in the analyses: using the property, and selling the property after construction. Moreover, correlation and regression sensitivity analyses are also conducted. The capital of Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, is selected for the case study due to the lack of cost-benefit analysis in developing countries. The results show that there is low probability of loss in the installation of both types of green roofs during their lifespans. Moreover, net present value for intensive green roofs is found to be higher than extensive ones, whereas the payback period for installing extensive green roofs is lower than intensive green roofs. It is concluded that the probability of loss for the owner is higher than that of benefit in the scenario of selling the property after construction resulting from the installation of both types of green roofs.