|کد مقاله||کد نشریه||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||نسخه تمام متن|
|6463367||1362098||2017||4 صفحه PDF||ندارد||دانلود کنید|
â¢Personal probabilities are subject to all the frailties of human decision-making.â¢A likelihood ratio does not encapsulate all types of uncertainty.â¢It is important to consider the âmisleading potentialâ of personal probability opinions.
The assignment of personal probabilities to form a forensic practitioner's likelihood ratio is a mental operation subject to all the frailties of human memory, perception and judgment. While we agree that beliefs expressed as coherent probabilities are neither ârightâ nor âwrongâ we argue that debate over this fact obscures both the requirement for and consideration of the âhelpfulnessâ of practitioner's opinions. We also question the extent to which a likelihood ratio based on personal probabilities can realistically be expected to âencapsulate all uncertaintyâ. Courts cannot rigorously assess a forensic practitioner's bare assertions of belief regarding evidential strength. At a minimum, information regarding the uncertainty both within and between the opinions of practitioners is required.
Journal: Science & Justice - Volume 57, Issue 1, January 2017, Pages 76-79