Day-ahead unit commitment method considering time sequence feature of wind power forecast error

The variable and intermittent nature of large-scale wind power integration makes day-ahead unit commitment (UC) decision-making difficult. This paper establishes a novel and effective UC model with wind power integration by optimizing the utilization of the forecast error and reserve decision. First, considering the temporal feature of the UC model, a time sequence segment-fitting method (TSFM) for the wind power forecast error is presented, in which the non-parametric fitting method is used to address the 'fat-tail' effect of error distribution. Second, according to the probability intervals of the forecast error and characteristic of the reserve, a new reserve decision method is proposed to define three classes of reserve strategies and optimize the capacity for each type of reserve. Third, a UC model with time-varying confidence levels is established by introducing conditional value at risk (CVaR) and chance-constrained programming (CCP), and is linked with the TSFM. This novel model can balance the costs of fuel, various reserves, load shedding risk, and wind curtailment risk, which can improve the economy of the power grid operation. Finally, an improved hybrid particle swarm optimization algorithm with a heuristic searching strategy is applied to solve this multivariate mixed integer non-linear programming problem. The simulation results verify the effectiveness and practicality of the model proposed.