Evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions avoided by wind generation in the Brazilian energetic matrix: A retroactive analysis and future potential

In recent years, wind power generation has grown exponentially in Brazil. The Brazilian Ten-Year Plan for Energy Expansion predicts an installed wind capacity about of 22.4 GW by 2023. This study evaluates the potential of avoided carbon dioxide emissions due to wind power development in Brazil. First, the emissions avoided by using wind power until the year 2017 were analyzed retrospectively. The future growth projections of wind power in Brazil were then analyzed, using magnitude growth projection models, and the impact of avoided carbon dioxide emissions on the energy matrix was assessed, under various scenarios. The results show that the avoided emissions may correspond to 5.8% of the carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 for the entire Brazilian energy matrix.