Sustainability of heat energy tariff in district heating system: Statistic and dynamic methodologies

The article analyzes district heating system efficiency by using benchmarking system. The 26 biggest Latvian DH companies were taken as case study for analysis. Two main components were distinguished from existing district heating systems tariffs: cost of fuel in tariff and other costs. Non-linear regression model is used for benchmarking analysis. Equation, which describes other costs as dependent variable, whereas fuel part of costs in tariff as independent variable was obtained. Performance of Latvian district heating companies were evaluated by using various efficiency indicators describing systems technical, scale, dynamic and financial parameters. Data envelopment analysis was used for measuring efficiency of these companies by taking into account multiple factors. In order to indicate main parameters that influence heat energy tariff and efficiency of all district heating system, sensitivity analysis by using system dynamic model developed in previous study was carried out. The model finds out the possibility to introduce the 4th generation district heating system in Latvia. Model includes the transition of heat network to the low-temperature regime at 80% share of the renewable energy. Moreover, matrix with district heating system efficiency parameters, which are most vital for optimization, was made.