Low carbon paratransit in Jakarta, Indonesia: Using econometric models to improve the enabling environment

A large proportion of Asia's urban population is served by informal modes of transport known as paratransit. Many of the vehicles in this informal sector contribute to rising air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Energy-efficient technologies could make paratransit environmentally sustainable. However, the purchase and use of clean vehicles is contingent on the willingness of the drivers to switch vehicles in the face of different policies. This paper draws upon a series of discrete choice and regression models to analyze drivers' response to a set of such hypothetical policies in Jakarta, Indonesia. The analysis confirmed that drivers are relatively unlikely to alter preferences for high-emissions vehicles without strong support from subsidies and demand management policies. In sum, policymakers will need to embed efforts to promote sustainable paratransit in a carefully designed suite of enabling policies that are not only good for the environment but paratransit operators.