Scenario-Driven Roadmapping to cope with uncertainty: Its application in the construction industry

• We present Scenario-Driven Roadmapping (SDR) as a way to cope with uncertainty.
• We combine scenario planning and roadmapping to achieve a robust business roadmap.
• Results of an initial application at a major Dutch construction firm are given.
• SDR proved effective in reducing uncertainty and finding promising business areas.
• We discuss managerial implications and make recommendations on how to improve SDR.

Roadmapping is widely considered as an appropriate approach for matching short-term actions to long-term goals. However, current roadmapping approaches fall short in effectively considering the uncertainty associated with future developments. In particular, existing methods cannot cope with uncertainty without destroying the communicative and directive strengths of roadmapping. This is especially a concern if roadmapping is to be widely used for strategic purposes. In this paper, we therefore introduce a comprehensible approach that enables firms to benefit from guiding their strategic innovation activities while still being able to consider a wide range of possible future business environments. To this end, we have developed the Scenario-Driven Roadmapping approach while aiming to ensure a robust roadmap. We present the results of an initial application of this approach in a major Dutch construction firm. The results showed that applying Scenario-Driven Roadmapping was effective in both reducing environmental uncertainty and in directing innovation towards promising business activities. In concluding, the paper makes recommendations on how to maximize the benefits of Scenario-Driven Roadmapping.