The diffusion of mobile telephony in Kazakhstan: An empirical analysis

• The best fit model of diffusion for mobile telephony in Kazakhstan is Gompertz.
• Population and fixed line subscribers affected the diffusion speed.
• The demand for mobile phone in Kazakhstan is predicted as 52.27 M in 2025.

Recently, the mobile telephony market of Kazakhstan has experienced rapid growth to the extent that the number of subscriptions exceeded the total population since 2009. In order to understand this phenomenon, this paper analyzes the diffusion of mobile telephony in Kazakhstan. Estimating the penetration rate of mobile telephony with the three most popular diffusion models, Logistic, Gompertz and Bass, it was found that the best fit model of the diffusion process for mobile telephony in Kazakhstan is Gompertz. Furthermore, we performed an empirical analysis to determine the significant factors that affect the fast diffusion speed and found that population and fixed line subscriptions are significant factors. Finally, we attempted to predict the demand of mobile telephony in Kazakhstan over the next ten years using a modified Gompertz model in which affecting factors are incorporated.