The impact of persistent dynamics on suspended sediment load estimation

Fluvial suspended sediment concentration and discharge is most commonly estimated by applying rating curves developed over a given base period of sediment monitoring to longer, continuous records of water discharge. This practice invokes the tacit assumption of stationary suspended sediment concentration-water discharge relationships (i.e. suspended sediment behavior). Here the ramifications of this assumption are explored through an investigation into the temporal dependence of suspended sediment concentration-discharge relationships for all hydrologic stations on small rivers draining the west coast of the continental US that have been monitored for suspended sediment over a period of 10 years or more. Persistent suspended sediment behavior was found to be the norm, with 19 of 24 stations expressing apparent monotonic trends over their base periods, and 21 stations with finer scale (subannual to interdecadal) persistent patterns. The identified persistent periods of suspended sediment behavior corresponded to distinct rating curves that differed significantly from other periods in terms of offset, slope, or both. Assuming stationary suspended sediment behavior resulted in 1% to 63% biasing of suspended sediment load. Applying rating curves developed for single persistent periods to broader discharge records resulted in up to 10× potential error in estimated sediment load. The risk of falsely characterizing the long-term (interannual-scale) suspended sediment behavior of a river through a single persistent period of elevated or depressed behavior may be much higher than expected. The average duration of identified persistent periods was 8.6 years, which is longer than the base period of suspended sediment monitoring for most river stations in the US. Peak discharge (high discharge events 20 to 1000 times mean discharge) was usually followed by periods of increased sediment concentration across US Pacific Coast. Seven rivers in Oregon and northern California displayed the same pattern of decadal- to interdecadal-scale elevated suspended sediment concentrations following the Great Christmas Floods of 1964.