کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
984558 934328 2014 18 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Identifying emerging topics in science and technology
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
شناسایی موضوعات در حال ظهور در علم و فن آوری
کلمات کلیدی
مدل سازی مبتنی بر استناد ؛ مباحث در حال ظهور ؛ کشف علمی؛ نوآوری در فن آوری؛ حوادث اگزوژن
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
چکیده انگلیسی


• Emerging topics across all of science are identified by combining direct citation and co-citation models of the Scopus database.
• 71 emerging topics from 2007 to 2010 are identified and characterized.
• 3 non-exclusive motive forces are identified: scientific discovery (62%), technological innovation (38%), and exogenous events (54%).
• External evidence (e.g., awards) correlates well with emerging topics.
• Although nearly all emerging topics contain highly cited papers, the reverse is not true – only 10% of highly cited papers are part of emerging topics.

The identification of emerging topics is of current interest to decision makers in both government and industry. Although many case studies present retrospective analyses of emerging topics, few studies actually nominate emerging topics for consideration by decision makers. We present a novel approach to identifying emerging topics in science and technology. Two large scale models of the scientific literature, one based on direct citation, and the other based on co-citation, are combined to nominate emerging topics using a difference function that rewards clusters that are new and growing rapidly. The top 25 emergent topics are identified for each year 2007 through 2010. These topics are classified and characterized in various ways in order to understand the motive forces behind their emergence, whether scientific discovery, technological innovation, or exogenous events. Topics are evaluated by searching for recent major awards associated with the topic or its key researchers. The evidence presented suggests that the methodology nominates a viable list of emerging topics suitable for inspection by decision makers.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Research Policy - Volume 43, Issue 8, October 2014, Pages 1450–1467
نویسندگان
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