How does a driving restriction affect transportation patterns? The medium-run evidence from Beijing

This paper uses data from 2009 to 2014 to study the medium-run impact of the driving restriction on transportation patterns in Beijing. Due to Chinese traditional avoidance of the number 4, 7.5% fewer cars are banned from driving on dates when 4 is specified, compared to other dates. Exploiting this variation, the analysis shows that the driving restriction significantly improves traffic condition in the restricted hours without worsening it during the unrestricted hours. Bus and taxi ridership increases accordingly, but very few drivers are motivated to take rail. Over years, the driving restriction exhibits a stronger effect on the evening traffic condition. The underlying factors for the time trend are further explored.