Regional embodied carbon emissions and their transfer characteristics in China

Estimating embodied carbon emissions (ECEs) in inter-regional trade and uncovering their transfer characteristics are of great significance to the efficient allocation of regional carbon responsibilities. With a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model, this study first estimated the China's regional ECEs during 2002-2012, and then investigated how they transferred through major regions and key industries. Finally, a structural decomposition analysis (SDA) was used to analyze the driving factors of changes in China's regional ECEs. The results indicate that: (1) China's regional ECEs have increased by 197%, from 518 Mt in 2002 to 1537 Mt in 2012; (2) ECEs have mainly transferred from less developed regions like northwest to developed regions like east coast through carbon-intensive manufacturing industries, testifying that “pollution heaven” hypothesis did work in China to some extent; (3) inter-regional trade scale growth was the dominant factor in increasing regional ECEs, while technological progress in exporting regions played a key restraining role. Based on the results, we provide some relevant suggestions for China's regional carbon reduction policies.