Predicting and mitigating the net greenhouse gas emissions of crop rotations in Western Europe

► The CERES-EGC model was applied to estimate the GHG exchanges of different cropping systems. ► A Bayesian calibration of the most sensitive model parameters allowed the model to be highly improved and the model was extrapolated to predict CO2 and N2O fluxes at rotation time-scale. ► One experimental site was a net source of GHG with a GWP of 670 kg CO2-C eq ha−1 yr−1, of which half were due to N2O emissions. The other site was a net sink of GHG for −650 kg CO2-C eq ha−1 yr−1, mainly due to a high C returns to soil from crop residues. ► A selection of mitigation options were tested in a experimental site, of which straw return to soils emerged as the most efficient to reduce the GWP of the crop rotation, with a 35% abatement.