Prediction of site specific wind energy value factors

This paper demonstrates a method to predict the value factor and market value of a wind turbine production. This will allow for the estimation of the economic viability of a turbine subject to pure market prices and also allow for prediction of the necessary financial support for turbines under subsidy schemes. The value factor is a common metric used to determine the value of variable energy sources. Research has shown that wind speed profiles that with a high value factor, or have a positive correlation with the market electricity price, have an economic advantage. However, previous research has determined overall value factors for wind in electricity networks at the macro level. This paper details a method at the micro level, since the wind conditions and therefore the value factor are themselves a site specific property. The data necessary to predict the value factor is the same as used to predict the energy production of the site. This allows for the prediction to be used before turbine installation and can be used as an optimization parameter for researchers and for turbine siting with regards to the electricity price/market.