Future nuclear perspectives based on MESSAGE integrated assessment modeling

Nuclear energy has the potential to be a vital component toward a clean energy strategy – but future energy systems may or may not include nuclear power. This study explores a range of future nuclear pathways consistent with different levels of energy demand, and explicitly assesses the implications of a potential global nuclear energy phase-out. In our scenarios the mitigation of climate change is one of the main factors driving a much needed transformation of the global energy system. A range of climate change mitigation scenarios is outlined and compared to a business-as-usual case. The scenarios are characteristic of different approaches to climate mitigation, including alternative combinations of supply and demand-side changes. Our analysis indicates that under a comprehensive and global mitigation effort, the stabilization of GHG concentrations at low levels (450 ppm CO2) would be technically achievable even at high energy demand and with a nuclear phase-out. We identify that significant investments in energy efficiency improvements and demand reduction offer the most flexibility in energy supply options and may or may not include nuclear power.

► We model future nuclear pathways at different levels of energy demand. ► We explicitly assess the implications of a potential global nuclear energy phase-out. ► Limiting GHGs to 450 ppm is technically possible at high demand and nuclear phase out. ► Energy efficiency improvements offer the greatest flexibility of energy supply. ► Efficiency enables transformation at low cost and modest increases without nuclear.