China's targets for reducing the intensity of CO2 emissions by 2020

•Forecasted China's energy demand and CO2 emissions in 2020 under five scenarios.•Analyzed the contributions of five factors to CO2 emissions in China's nine industries.•The reduction target for the industries and influencing factors was allocated.

This paper estimated CO2 emissions based on the IPCC reference approach under five scenarios that consider China's economic and energy development strategy. Based on the LDMI method, the contributions of per-capita production value, industrial structure, energy intensity, energy mix and coefficients of discharge to CO2 emissions were analyzed in nine carbon-intensive industries. The emission reduction target for nine industries and five influencing factors were allocated, using scenarios in which China's emission reduction target is not realized. The results show that the reduction target can be realized completely if energy intensity and the share of non-fossil fuel use in primary energy consumption can reach the objectives of China's mid and long-term strategic. There will be uncertainly if the share of non-fossil fuel use does not increase to 15%. And the task of reducing emissions in the industry of Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals is the most arduous among the nine industries considered.