A global energy outlook to 2035 with strategic considerations for Asia and Middle East energy supply and demand interdependencies

•Asian energy consumption will increase 1.8-fold during the next 25 years.•Asia is the only region that will remarkably expand oil and natural gas imports.•Asia’s share of Middle Eastern oil exports will rise from 75% in 2010 to 87% in 2035.•Middle Eastern countries need economic diversification to sustain the high GDP growth.

This study quantitatively projects energy supply and demand in Asia and other regions of the world through 2035, focusing on the relationship between Asia and the Middle East. An integrated group of energy economics models, including a macroeconomic model, an energy supply and demand model and a technology assessment model, are used to show that the Middle East will be able to respond to an expected substantial increase in Asian fossil fuel demand. Therefore, continuing appropriate investment in resource development in the Middle East will be indispensable to ensure stability in global energy supply and demand. The Middle East is expected to focus more on its fossil fuel exports to Asia amid a decline in exports to North America and Europe. The large energy consumption and production regions are expected to become more and more interdependent.