The use of predictive modelling to target Neolithic settlement and occupation activity in mainland Scotland

A central aim of Neolithic studies in Europe is to understand settlement or domestic activity of the first agriculturalists. In Scotland, the continued absence of unambiguous Neolithic settlement or domestic occupation activities on the mainland remains an unresolved issue. It is proposed that areas attractive for settlement and occupation activities may be identified by constructing GIS-based models of sites believed to be related to settlement or occupation activities, including chambered cairns, timber halls, and sites containing pit-digging episodes. Statistical analyses undertaken in this process suggest new insights into the locations of the chambered cairns, timber halls, and pits. Finalised models are constructed and desktop assessments are conducted to examine model performance. Research priorities for improving significant environmental variables driving the current models are identified.

Research highlights►First predictive models targeting Neolithic domestic activity in Scottish mainland. ►Timber halls, pits, and chambered cairns are used as input sites. ►Significant environmental criteria for site presence of input sites identified. ►Key priorities for refining significant environmental criteria identified. ►Models can be utilized to help target fieldwork in understudied or overlooked areas.