An indicative analysis of investment opportunities in the African electricity supply sector — Using TEMBA (The Electricity Model Base for Africa)

•An open-source cost-optimization tool is used to analyse the African power sector.•45 countries of continental Africa are modelled individually.•Scenarios investigate potential system savings through increased power trade.•Results indicate that grid expansion can lead to substantial cost savings.

Africa is a resource-rich continent but lacks the required power infrastructure. Efforts such as the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All and U.S. President Obama's Power Africa initiatives aim to facilitate much needed investment. However, no systematic national and regional investment outlook is available to analysts. This paper examines indicative scenarios of power plant investments based on potential for electricity trade. OSeMOSYS, a cost-optimization tool for long-term energy planning, is used to develop least cost system configurations. The electricity supply systems of forty-seven countries are modelled individually and linked via trade links to form TEMBA (The Electricity Model Base for Africa). A scenario comparison up to 2040 shows that an enhanced grid network can alter Africa's generation mix and reduce electricity generation cost. The insights have important investment, trade and policy implications, as specific projects can be identified as of major significance, and thus receive political support and funding.