Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
10477850 | Journal of International Money and Finance | 2005 | 26 Pages |
Abstract
We re-assess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade: interest rate parity, productivity based models, and a composite specification. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications - purchasing power parity and the sticky-price monetary model. The models are estimated in first-difference and error correction specifications, and model performance evaluated at forecast horizons of 1, 4 and 20 quarters, using the mean squared error, direction of change metrics, and the “consistency” test of Cheung and Chinn [1998. Integration, cointegration, and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models. Journal of International Money and Finance 17, 813-830]. Overall, model/specification/currency combinations that work well in one period do not necessarily work well in another period.
Keywords
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities
Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Economics and Econometrics
Authors
Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie D. Chinn, Antonio Garcia Pascual,