Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
10479255 Journal of Policy Modeling 2005 18 Pages PDF
Abstract
A method for anticipating quarterly estimates of GDP and its main components in advance of the official publication is presented in this study. Using high-frequency information, time series equations and regression analysis, the model predicts the quarterly GDP based on three different approaches: production side, expenditure side, and principal components extracted from a set of strategic indicators. This model, considered a purely econometric system with no personal data adjustment, allows us to forecast the current quarter GDP and its price deflator using monthly information on economic activity, financial markets, futures prices and forwards, and expectations.
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities Economics, Econometrics and Finance Economics and Econometrics
Authors
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