Feeling and thinking: Quantifying the relationship between perceived tenure security and housing improvement in an informal neighbourhood in Buenos Aires

In this paper, the relationship between perceived tenure security and housing improvement in informal neighbourhoods is examined drawing from a case in Buenos Aires, Argentina. A perspective based on recent insights from social psychological research on judgment and decision making under uncertainty is introduced to operationalize the concept of perceived tenure security and to establish the nature and strength of its frequently assumed relationship with investment behaviour. Following these insights, perceived tenure security is shown to be composed of both the perceived probability of eviction (a thinking state) and the fear of eviction (a feeling state), which are related but separate variables. The results show that perceived tenure security is an important individual variable influencing housing improvement, with fear of eviction being a more important determinant than perceived probability of eviction. These results have important consequences for the future study of tenure security and can also have policy implications.