Evolution and assessment on China's urbanization 1960–2010: Under-urbanization or over-urbanization?

There has been a significant transformation in the urbanization and economic growth in post-reform China. The nature and degree of urbanization is a subject of some controversy. This paper examines empirical data for 110 counties and employs a quadrant plots method involving estimation of several parameters to analyze empirically the evolvement of urbanization in China during 1960–2010. There are three periods of China's urbanization in the pattern of world, which is the rapid decline stage (1960–1978), the stable stage of ascension (1979–1995) and rapid promotion stage (1996–2010). Over the entire period, compared to the rest of the world, urbanization and economic growth in China appears to be coordinated and at moderate levels. However, China's urbanization process has progressed faster than economic growth since 2004, and it is right time that China should rethink under-urbanization and it's countermeasure in development strategy. And the core of new stage of urbanization is to improve the quality of urbanization and to take little count of urbanization quantity.

► A simple and quantitative method was developed based on empirical data of 110 counties. ► The method provides a visualized, continuous and objective analysis during 1960–2010. ► China's urbanization process has progressed faster than economic growth since 2004. ► The core of China's future urbanization is to improve the quality of urbanization.