The employment and population impacts of the boom and bust of Talvivaara mine in the context of severe environmental accidents - A CGE evaluation

There had been a mining boom in Finland before the current recession. The most ambitious investment was the Talvivaara nickel and zinc mine in Kainuu. The operation phase began in 2008, and for three years the mine produced nickel and zinc according to expectations. Then everything changed: two accidents occurred in 2012, which had severe environmental consequences. There was a failed attempt at corporate restructuring. The production company of Talvivaara is now in bankruptcy, and the national government is financing the mine. Our aim is to present an evaluation of the impact these events had on the employment and population of Kainuu region. Our results for the period 2009-2014 indicate that the Talvivaara mine still had a positive cumulative effect on the employment of Kainuu, in spite of the environmental accidents. The results for the period 2015-2022 suggest that the full implementation of the rejected corporate restructuring plan would have been a tolerable solution for the employment and population of Kainuu region. Considering the uncertain future of the mine, we suggest follow up studies.