Performance of the UKPDS Outcomes Model for Prediction of Myocardial Infarction and Stroke in the ADDITION-Europe Trial Cohort

The UKPDS outcomes model has moderate discriminatory ability in the ADDITION-Europe trial cohort but overestimated absolute risk. The model may need updating for cardiovascular disease risk prediction in contemporary diabetes populations where patients may be diagnosed earlier in the disease trajectory and in whom cardiovascular risk is therefore lower.